By-poll setback: A wake-up call for BJP

Results in the by-elections for three Assembly seats that were declared on Monday should be seen as a wake-up call for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The most important and shocking result (from the BJP’s perspective) is from Bankipur in Bihar, where Jan Suraaj Party (JSP) chief Prashant Kishor defeated his nearest rival by a margin of 19,324 votes.

It is for the first time in 31 years that the saffron party lost the Bankipur seat. It was not just the BJP’s bastion but also the constituency of the party’s national president Nitin Nabin.

For Kishor, on the other hand, the victory is especially sweet after the drubbing his party received in the last state Assembly elections. The lopsided verdict had led many experts to write off the former poll strategist as a viable political alternative to the established parties, but he has, like the mythical phoenix, risen from the ashes. However, it is premature to see him as a rising power in the state. After all, one swallow doesn’t make a summer, but there is a potential.

In Madhya Pradesh’s Datia Assembly by-poll, too, BJP’s Ashutosh Tiwari was defeated by Congress candidate Ghanshyam Singh by 6,016 votes. The choice of the BJP candidate reportedly displeased former MP home minister Narottam Mishra, who has been a dominant force in Datia for nearly two decades.

A small consolation for the BJP was winning the Manjalpur seat in Gujarat, albeit with a much smaller victory margin. Satish Govindbhai Patel defeated Bhikhabhai Rabari of the Congress by 30,630 votes. This is bad news from the home state of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah. Also, the state has been stronghold of the BJP for decades together.

To be sure, three Assembly by-election results do not account for much in a country as large as India. The BJP, however, will do well by acknowledging this as a sign of growing resentment in the country. In the last few months, two major events have badly hit the saffron establishment: the donation theft at the Ram temple in Ayodhya and the NEET exam leak, followed by a successful agitation by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), which forced education minister Dharmendra Pradhan to resign.

Over the past several months, the party had to reckon with controversies that have affected public perceptions of governance and accountability. These developments have provided political opponents with opportunities to question the government’s administrative effectiveness and responsiveness to public concerns.

Whether these controversies have had a direct bearing on the by-election outcomes is difficult to establish conclusively, but they have undoubtedly become part of the broader political discourse that may have influenced sections of the electorate.

The BJP’s biggest strength over the years has been its ability to quickly identify political signals, reorganise its strategy and reconnect with voters before discontent hardens into a larger electoral trend. The by-election setbacks, particularly in long-held strongholds and constituencies where victory margins have narrowed considerably, suggest that organisational complacency, local grievances and candidate selection can no longer be overlooked.

What cannot be missed is that new political players have been emerging as has been the renewed competitiveness of Opposition parties. If the BJP treats these results as an opportunity for introspection, organisational reform and greater engagement with public concerns, it could prevent local setbacks from evolving into a more significant political challenge in the future.