Iran’s intransigent bellicosity could boomerang

Iran seems to have bitten more than it could chew—and is now paying the price, as the US military launched the 11th night of strikes. The strikes cast a shadow on the diplomatic efforts in Pakistan to keep the interim ceasefire between the two belligerents alive. The memorandum of understanding (MoU) is in tatters. From Tehran’s perspective, it is a bad development, for the MoU tilted in its favour, so much so that some of the staunch supporters of US President Donald Trump were aghast at the terms of the MoU. The mainstream media, which dislikes him anyway, was also very critical of the MoU. Pakistan and Qatar had played a crucial role in shielding the fellow Muslim nation from the combined might of the US and Israel. Evidently, the clerical regime misinterpreted the relief provided by the MoU as a triumph against the two enemy nations. Instead of accepting peace, or even feigning, it began acting as the region’s hegemon, attacking commercial shipping once again. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard was so emboldened that it even killed three American soldiers and wounded many others. The US response, quite expectedly, was swift and severe; the attacks continued for the 11th night.

Speaking from the Oval Office on Tuesday, Trump made it clear that the US had “no interest in any meeting.” He even hinted at US forces targeting an area of Iran close to one of its main sites for enriching uranium. The rising escalation is pushing energy prices northwards, though not steeply. In the last week, crude has risen over 9 per cent. There is also volatility in global capital markets, but the mood doesn’t reflect panic. The West Asian region is likely to see more military action, with 17 American soldiers dying in the Iran war and over 500 reportedly getting wounded. This has incensed Trump, who warned that Tehran could face a heavy response for every American soldier who is killed. In a Truth Social post, Trump said, “Every time Iran kills an American soldier, they will pay for that killing many times over! This directive has been passed on to Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Daniel Caine, and every Leader in the Military.”

Apart from facing the renewed wrath of Trump’s America, Iran’s recklessness and attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz have also led the world to look for ways and means to reduce its dependence on Hormuz. The existing pipelines were compelled to pump more. Countries across the world utilised their oil reserves, thus lessening the global shortage. They are also working to further decrease their dependence on the waterway threatened by Tehran. Iran is unnecessarily killing a ceasefire that favoured it so much. Also, by resuming attacks and creating uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is accelerating the trend of other countries reducing their dependence on the maritime routes threatened by it. As global markets adapt, Iran risks losing one of its most significant sources of geopolitical leverage; these actions undermine its own strategic advantages. If this pattern continues, Tehran may find that its confrontational approach has weakened its influence, while pushing regional and global powers to pursue permanent alternatives. This is in addition to the destruction the US military is wreaking in Iran.