Congress avoids a Rajasthan in Karnataka, but uphill task ahead

The Congress top brass played its cards deftly by ensuring smooth succession in Karnataka as Chief Minister Siddaramaiah stepped down formally on Friday, a day after he met Rahul Gandhi and party president Mallikarjun Kharge in Delhi. While his arch-rival within the party, D K Shivakumar, will be the next Chief Minister, Siddaramaiah will remain a force to be reckoned with in the state, as he has reportedly demanded plum portfolios from the party high command for his son Yathindra and loyalists. Towards this, he is seeking water resources and backward classes welfare portfolios. Evidently, the top leadership wanted to give more headroom to Shivakumar by offering the outgoing CM a seat in the Rajya Sabha, but he doesn’t seem interested in national politics: “I was also asked about the Rajya Sabha. I declined it. I want to remain in Karnataka politics,” Siddaramaiah said. And he is sure to make his presence felt. Having presented himself as the biggest backward-class stalwart in Karnataka, Siddaramaiah wants his son to carry on that legacy. Unsurprisingly, the state’s AHINDA bloc of minorities, backward classes, and Dalits wasn’t amused by the Congress high command’s decision to remove Siddaramaiah as the Chief Minister, resulting in protests across cities.

It looks like the party leaders in Delhi managed to defuse a potentially troublesome situation in the southern state. There was no repeat of the Rajasthan debacle. Fratricidal battles in the northern state between the then chief minister Ashok Gehlot and his former deputy Sachin Pilot badly hit the grand old party’s voter base in the state, contributing to its loss in the 2023 Assembly elections. Karnataka did not suffer that. So far, so good. It may sound cliched, but Shivakumar faces an uphill task. Taking over as Chief Minister after a prolonged and delicate power struggle is one thing; governing effectively while balancing competing ambitions within the party is quite another. The new Chief Minister cannot afford to alienate either Siddaramaiah loyalists or the party’s central leadership. Every cabinet decision, portfolio allocation, and administrative appointment will be closely watched for signs of factional favouritism.

Siddaramaiah’s insistence on key portfolios for his son and trusted aides underlines the fact that he intends to retain a decisive say in the government. This effectively means Shivakumar may not enjoy the kind of autonomy normally associated with the office of Chief Minister. And yet, he must improve the economic and fiscal situation. The 5th state finance commission report said, “Public debt receipts, which reflect the borrowings of the state, have progressively increased reaching Rs 116,000 crores in 2025-26 (Budgeted Estimate, or BE) from Rs 44,549 crores in 2022-23.” It will be a tightrope walk for Shivakumar to balance the populist five guarantees that his party promised in 2023 with the imperatives of fiscal prudence. He has also to ensure that the country’s IT hub retains its competitive edge. For now, the Congress high command can claim it has avoided a potential political crisis. But whether this carefully crafted compromise evolves into stable governance or descends into another prolonged turf war will depend largely on Shivakumar’s political skill, patience, and ability to carry both factions along without appearing weak. His elevation marks not the end of the Congress power struggle in Karnataka, but the beginning of a far more complicated phase.