Rubio visit a big success, but India must not be complacent

If there were a sweat and toil award for foreign ministers, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio would win hands down, for the man worked really hard to bring the Indo-US ties back on track. Derailed by US President Donald Trump’s unnecessarily needling comments and harsh, punitive tariffs, the bilateral relations became tense. The four days in India must have been exhausting for Rubio even physically, as he—apart from having several meetings with top Indian functionaries, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi—also braved the scorching sun of Jaipur and Agra. According to a headline in The Washington Post, ‘To repair ties with India, Rubio leans into pageantry.’ Evidently, his visit was a success.

To begin with, it offered a few gasps of breath to the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), an informal strategic forum comprising four nations, namely—India, the United States, Australia, and Japan. The real objective was to check the growing military might and nuisance of China. The idea was to keep the Indo-Pacific region free, open, prosperous, and inclusive, but despite a few meetings and military exercises, it never took off. Earlier, India’s reluctance to become part of any security alliance stopped progress. Later, Trump’s repeated actions hurting Indian interests and remarks embarrassing Modi played spoilsports.

Now, after a long time, the Quad foreign ministers agreed to jointly build a port in Fiji and signed pacts covering critical ‌minerals and energy security. On Tuesday, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar and Rubio concluded a Framework on ‘Securing of Supply in the Mining and Processing of Critical Minerals and Rare Earths.’ It aims to deepen India-US cooperation across critical minerals and rare earths supply chain, including mining, processing, recycling, and related investments. It seeks to strengthen resilient and diversified supply chains, while promoting collaboration in financing and effective management of critical minerals and rare earths scrap.

This move should be seen in conjunction with the attempted revival of Quad, for this is aimed at curtailing China’s dominance in critical minerals’ supply chains. On bilateral trade agreement negotiations, Rubio said that the two nations are “on the verge” of finalising it “very soon.” He also extended a formal invitation from President Trump to Modi to visit Washington later this year, to establish direct communication channels ahead of their expected face-to-face meeting at the G-7 Summit in France. Rubio has certainly done a great deal to break the ice; now the other actors will have to play a role. The biggest X factor remains Trump.

On its part, India must be very careful; it must watch not just its steps in not just examining America’s interests but also guessing the whims and fancies of the US President. Trump’s transactional worldview leaves little room for sentiment or strategic patience, and allies are frequently expected to align instantly with American priorities. For India, therefore, caution must accompany optimism. New Delhi cannot afford either overenthusiasm or complacency while dealing with Washington.

Its challenge lies in deepening cooperation with the United States in areas such as defence, technology, trade, and critical minerals without compromising its strategic autonomy. As ties improve, India will need diplomatic agility, patience, and realism to navigate an increasingly personality-driven American foreign policy landscape, where institutional assurances alone may no longer be sufficient.