Looks like Congress given up hopes on north India!

Themuch-awaited results of the 2026 Assembly polls in four states and one union territory– West Bengal, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry– are scheduled for today. Of the five, West Bengal and Tamil Nadu are big states with 42 and 39 Lok Sabha MP seats, respectively. Interestingly, the Indian National Congress (INC), which ruled the country for nearly six decades, is not a major player in either state. Not only that, but it also relies on allies in almost all big states, including Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The party’s decline, which started in 1989, touched the nadir in 2014 when it won just 44 seats, the lowest in its electoral history. The defeat was so ignominious that Congress was not even eligible for the opposition status. The party slightly improved its tally to 52 in 2019, but the opposition status was still a far cry. However, in the 2024 General Elections, the Grand Old Party won 99 seats, a significant improvement from the previous two elections, and secured the opposition status. But the momentum did not last long as Congress lost most of the subsequent Assembly polls on its own or in alliance with other parties. On its part, BJP, as I mentioned in one of my previous columns, seems to be riding on a second wave conquering one state after another.

Why is Congress in such a pathetic state and is still not in the reckoning for power at the Centre in 2029 despite putting up a reasonably good show in 2024? One reason is that in the post Narendra Modi period which began in 2014, Congress allowed itself to be painted as the anti-North India party. BJP leaders also succeeded in continuing this narrative in one election after the other. Of course, Congress also gave ample scope for it.

In the recent issue of the delimitation of Lok Sabha constituencies, Congress leaders from south, in their eagerness to defend the interests of their region, tried to show North India in poor light in terms of economic growth and population control. But allowing the Congress leaders from south to insult north India is a bad strategy that has been adopted by the party. It looks like Congress has given up hopes on North India!

Incidentally, the top rung of the Congress party is also dominated by leaders from south of Vindhyas. Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge is from Karnataka while general secretary K C Venugopal, a key point man of Rahul Gandhi, is from Kerala. That way, leaders from the south are occupying two critical positions in the party.

Of course, lack of strong leaders from north India is also haunting the Congress leadership. This is primarily because the party has been out of power in most of these states. However, it can still develop strong leaders in all states by giving chances to young and aspiring individuals. They will come in handy whenever the right opportunity arises. By nurturing strong leaders in states, BJP made inroads into several states. But sadly, Congress is not doing that. Instead, it is still relying on old guards. I noticed this during my visits to Uttar Pradesh during the 2019 and 2024 polls. Uttar Pradesh is a key state for any political party to capture power at the Centre as it is home to 80 MP seats, accounting for nearly 15 per cent of total Lok Sabha seats. If the situation is so pathetic in UP, it will not be any different in other states.

Recently, Kharge stirred up a controversy by calling Gujaratis illiterate during an election campaign in Kerala. Of course, he issued clarification on the issue, but the damage was done. How can Congress come to power in Gujarat when its president makes such irresponsible statements?

Interestingly, artificial intelligence also realized the impact of the anti-North India narrative on Congress. According to it, BJP has successfully painted Congress as the anti-North India party and is using this against it in elections.

In 2004 and 2009 General Elections, the undivided Andhra Pradesh played a key role in Congress’ victory and helped the party’s return to power in 2004. In those days, Andhra Pradesh, with 42 seats, was the biggest state in Congress’ kitty. Post bifurcation and thanks to mishandling of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy’s issue, Congress has been wiped out in the capital-less Andhra Pradesh. However, Congress managed to return to power in Telangana, thanks to the hard work of Anumula Revanth Reddy, the current Chief Minister. But Telangana is a relatively small state with just 17 MP seats. Therefore, Congress needs to revive its fortunes in big states in north India if it wants to come to power at the Centre and stay relevant in Indian politics in the long run.

But can Congress shed its anti-north India image? It’s not going to be an easy task unless it comes up with a credible political strategy. But if it doesn’t do that, the Grand Old Party will bite the dust again in 2029. Furthermore, if this narrative continues to carry weight, its key allies in north India like Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and other parties in other states will eventually move away from it for their own political survival.

Like the Hindutva narrative that strengthened the BJP and weakened Congress considerably in the last three decades, ‘Congress against north India’ narrative will further weaken the Congress at national level. It’s time for Congress to go for corrective measures. Otherwise, it will be in opposition for a few more terms and Rahul Gandhi is unlikely to realize his dream of becoming India’s Prime Minister.

Despite all these, Congress still has presence across India and it’s the only party which can challenge the dominance of BJP. That’s for sure as no other political party has a pan-India presence. Will Congress capitalize on its base and bounce back remains to be seen.