Opposition clueless on how to stop Modi juggernaut in polls!

Soon after the Bihar Assembly polls and mayoral elections to Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC), which the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won, I wrote in this column in January that BJP seemed to be riding on a second Narendra Modi wave. In the first Modi wave that began in 2014, the party won two consecutive terms at the Centre on its own and the seats won by its partners in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) were the bonus. The saffron party also stormed to power in key states like Uttar Pradesh, the country’s largest state. But BJP saw its tally reduced to 240 seats in Lok Sabha, well below the half-way mark, in the 2024 General Elections. Many predicted BJP’s decline thereafter. But it bounced back and won in Haryana, Maharashtra, Delhi and Bihar Assembly elections. And the saffron party exhibited its upper hand in the latest Assembly polls in four states and one union territory by winning three of them. The NDA retained power in Assam for a third consecutive term besides retaining power in Puducherry.

The saffron party’s big catch was the West Bengal state where it had secured two-thirds majority in its maiden victory. BJP has been trying to gain a strong foothold in the eastern state for the past 12 years. It succeeded this time around, entrenching its position in the eastern part of the country. Interestingly, a ruling party at the Centre came to power in West Bengal after a gap of nearly 50 years. Congress ruled the state between 1972 and 1977. Furthermore, West Bengal is home to 42 Lok Sabha seats, the third highest after Uttar Pradesh (80 seats) and Maharashtra (48). That’s why I called it a prize catch for the saffron party. All three big states in terms of Lok Sabha seats are in BJP’s kitty now.

But did Hindu consolidation propel BJP beyond the victory mark in West Bengal? Though there is some element of truth in that argument, the anti-incumbency factor has played a key role.

People of West Bengal voted against Mamata Banerjee of TMC and her government. They wanted a change after giving three consecutive terms to Didi, as Mamata Banerjee is popularly known, and voted for BJP as they saw it as the best alternative among those in the fray. Further, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and Amit Shah’s Chanakya-like strategies also pushed the saffron party to the forefront. BJP will now try to stay put on the Bengal soil for pretty long through its familiar consolidation strategies and development agenda.

Tamil Nadu, the second biggest state that went to polls this time, was a big surprise with Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK), a political startup founded by actor-turned-politician C Joseph Vijay a couple of years ago, emerging as the single largest party with 108 seats in the 234-member Assembly. That way, Joseph Vijay ended the decades-long dominance of Dravidian parties – DMK and AIADMK- in the state.

People, especially youngsters, seemed to have opted for TVK as they didn’t find the AIADMK-led alliance as the best alternative when they wanted to defeat the ruling DMK. Joseph Vijay, a Christian by faith, was at the right place at the right time. He is the third popular Tamil actor to enter politics in recent years.

Vijayakanth, also a popular Tamil film actor, floated the MDMK party in 2005. But he failed despite contesting on his own in 2009, forming an alliance with AIADMK for the 2011 Assembly polls and tying up with the BJP-led NDA in the 2014 General Elections. Another popular actor, Kamal Hasan, founded MNM in 2018. These two actors didn’t succeed as the two Dravidian parties were strong when they entered politics. But Vijay made his political foray at a time when AIADMK was getting weakened. That helped his party score a big victory. He faced some hurdles before forming the government as his party did not get the requisite majority. With those hurdles cleared now, he should focus on delivering the promises he made and putting the state on a growth trajectory. Telugu Desam Party (TDP) founder N T Rama Rao also got a massive mandate within a short span of forming his political party in 1982, but lost elections in 1989. Let’s hope Joseph Vijay will not go that way.

In Keralam, as expected, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) scored a big victory. Anti-incumbency also played a key role in the state though Congress pushed very hard for the win with support from Telangana Chief Minister A Revanth Reddy. UDF and the Left Democratic Front (LDF), led by CPM, swapped power every five years for a long time. This sequence was interrupted when LDF retained power for a second term in 2021. So, UDF was forced to wait for power for a decade. This election victory will boost the confidence of the Congress cadre, but the party leadership should give the Chief Minister’s post to a person who has worked hard and enjoys people’s support in the state. That can encourage leaders in other states to strive hard for the party.

In Assam, BJP consolidated its position by winning 82 seats on its own in the 126-member Assembly. Though into a third term, the saffron party secured its own majority this time. In the past, it relied on alliance partners for the majority. Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, who shifted from Congress in 2015, was instrumental in BJP’s stratospheric rise in this year’s election. In all, BJP won three out of five states that went to polls.

All said and done, Congress and other opposition parties are still clueless on how to stop the Modi juggernaut in polls. This was clearly visible in West Bengal and the other two states where the saffron party won.

BJP has turned a dexterous mix of development and Hindutva into a potent political weapon the opposition has no answer for. Unfortunately, Congress still sees BJP wins through the prism of Hindutva. That’s where it is failing. BJP’s development agenda is resonating with voters in many states. That’s one of the reasons why it could retain power for multiple terms in many states. Congress should offer a better alternative if it wants to effectively take on BJP. So long as it doesn’t do that, Congress is unlikely to come to power at the Centre and BJP’s grip on the country will tighten. However, Joseph Vijay’s stupendous win in Tamil Nadu goes on to indicate that political startups can have a field day if founders play their cards well and at the right time.