Weather forecasting blends two models to sharpen accuracy

The agriculture and allied sectors are now not quite as substantial contributors to the GDP of the country as they once were. Still the agriculture and allied sectors remain an important component of the country’s economy; perhaps no longer the backbone, but at least a major limb. And what India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal said of its significance, namely that all else can wait, but not agriculture, by and large still holds good.

Agriculture, is an all-encompassing and complex discipline. The two decades and more in my service that I spent dealing with it have left me convinced that no other activity spans such a vast canvas of subjects. In soil, for instance, there is physics, in plants, botany in insects, zoology in dealing with the markets mathematics, and, finally,economics in assessing its viability.

Never an extraordinarily remunerative occupation compared to others such as businesses, industries, or professional careers, agriculture did have its appeal as a substantial source of support for long, till the initial days after independence.

A number of things that have happened since then have, however, reduced it to a very fragile, non-remunerative and risky occupation, with many abandoning it in favour of greener pastures, pun intended! Whatever can be done, therefore, to assist the transition of the agriculture and allied sectors from sustenance occupations to commercial activities, needs to be done with a sense of urgency of purpose and emphasis.

Among the many things that governments can do is the one thing that is easiest; do nothing! At least nothing, that is, that comes in the way of the farmers’ produce accessing the most remunerative markets.

In doing that, the government will be emulating Diogenes the Guru of Alexander the Great. When Alexander, after his celebrated conquests, approached his mentor, offering a reward for all that he had learnt from him, Diogenes is famously reported to have told his disciple to step out of the way of the sunlight as he was feeling cold! The Guru was beyond being lured by material temptations.

A very potentially promising effort recently made by the government of India in this regard, unfortunately, proved to be an abortive attempt, on account of the lack of political will to overcome resistance by forces largely motivated by vested political interests.

The India Metrological Department (IMD), last week unveiled a new weather model to provide forecasting of monsoon patterns at the block level forecast of the journey of the monsoons.

Weather has always played a pivotal role in farming, influencing everything from planting schedules to harvest quality. It is arguably the most significant external factor affecting agricultural productivity. From early civilizations observing seasonal patterns to today’s farmers relying on high-tech meteorological tools, the ability to anticipate atmospheric conditions remains fundamental to farming success.

In today’s world, marked by increasing climate variability and extreme weather events, accurate and timely weather forecasting is not just helpful but essential. Its influence extends across the entire agricultural value chain, affecting immediate on-farm decisions and shaping long-term strategies. For modern agriculture to remain productive, sustainable, and resilient farm practices are absolutely essential. Weather forecasting is directly linked to increased productivity by allowing farmers to take proactive rather than reactive actions. With access to reliable forecasts, growers can better manage inputs, protect their crops, and avoid costly mistakes.

Expecting a heavy rainfall event, for example, might prompt the delay of planting or harvesting operations, helping to avoid soil compaction, seed washout, or spoilage of mature produce. Thwarting of an impending heat wave, again, gives farmers the opportunity to adjust irrigation schedules to maintain adequate soil moisture and prevent heat stress in crops. Wind forecasts can, similarly, influence decisions such as applying or delaying pesticide and herbicide spraying to reduce drift and maximize effectiveness.

Efficient forecasting systems can clearly transform weather from being a source of risk into a strategic advantage, by facilitating optimization of resources such as water, fertilizers, and labour, resulting in better yields, improved quality, and reduced environmental impact. Without accurate forecasting, farm operations become vulnerable to sudden disruptions, increasing the likelihood of crop failure, wasted inputs, and financial losses.

Weather windows or short periods of favorable conditions, can also be identified in advance for tasks like mechanical weeding, pruning, or spreading compost, ensuring operations are done efficiently and at the right time.

Further, many crop pests and diseases are strongly influenced by weather conditions. Forecasting models can predict outbreaks based on temperature, humidity, leaf wetness, and precipitation levels. Harvesting is a race against time and weather. The quality and quantity of a crop at harvest can be dramatically affected by short-term weather conditions.

It has, therefore, been a long-standing aim of the IMD to provide hyper local forecasts to enable farmers to time their sowing precisely. Historically, such estimates have been available, at best, over states or at the level of districts.

The new system blends two forecasting models to sharpen accuracy. From the date of the monsoon’s onset in Kerala, it can use AI-based analysis and, using its historical data and global weather models, which provide the monsoon’s itinerary with unprecedented granularity.

The ability of an institution to stay abreast with developments in weather conditions elsewhere in the world is crucial to the art of improving forecasting systems. The famous butterfly effect amply demonstrates that imperative. It is the concept that small, seemingly insignificant actions can create massive, unpredictable consequences in complex systems.

Coined by meteorologist Edward Lorenz in the 1960s, it implies that tiny initial differences like a butterfly flapping its wings can ripple out and cause vast variations in outcomes, such as a distant hurricane. The phrase suggests that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil could, through a chain of atmospheric events, cause a tornado in Texas!

No matter which place in the world, it is, and irrespective of how highly developed its weather forecasting systems, it is always the unfortunate weathermen who are the butt of jokes. No matter how hard they try, the very inherent instability of weather systems is such that they defy the most advanced technologies and the best efforts of forecasters.

Which is probably why there is this joke about the weatherman in a town who applied for a transfer to another place, on the ground that the weather was constantly in disagreement with him!

(The writer was formerly Chief Secretary, Government of Andhra Pradesh)